Coach Tom Frederick
CoachForum Replies Created
-
There might be an opportunity to make some money as volume rotates to BSC Smart Chain.
https://x.com/nobrainflip/status/1891573076862665125?s=19
-
Good morning, ARC Family! Here are some insights to start your week…
🚀 It’s Official: This Cycle Is Different 🔥
The classic four-year cycle is no longer the driving force behind the market. The diminishing impact of each BTC halving on supply, coupled with surging institutional demand via spot ETFs, has fundamentally changed market dynamics.
In previous cycles, large BTC profits on centralized exchanges would spill over into altcoins, igniting broad alt seasons. But now? Institutions and retail are buying BTC through ETFs and settling back to USD instead of rotating into smaller caps. Whales on CEXs are less inclined to roll BTC gains into alts, while high-risk traders are diving straight into on-chain gambling. This has created a polarized market: BTC as a mature institutional asset on one end, and the on-chain “casino” on the other.
⚡ What To Expect Without the 4-Year Cycle
With the old flow of funds disrupted, mini-cycles and pockets of outperformance are replacing the massive alt seasons of the past. Memecoins ran, then AI narratives, AI agents, and possibly BNB chain rotations. Market sentiment and macro triggers now drive fast shifts—bullish runs can flip to cool-downs within weeks or months.
Gone are the days of waiting for a 10x on a basket of majors. Instead, capitalizing on shorter trends while preserving capital during downswings is key.
Hence, it is a TRADER’s MARKET (The Managed Vaults can allow you to accomplish this with a portion of your portfolio)💰 Compounding Wealth: A New Mindset
Instead of swinging for one monumental trade, the focus should be on compounding gains over time. The best approach? Treat every trade as an independent event—allocate a percentage, manage risk, secure profits, and feed gains back into the core portfolio.
Think like a poker player: smaller bets with favorable odds rather than going all-in on a single hand. Growing 10K into 11K, then 12K, and so on, is a much more sustainable path to long-term success.
📊 The 50/50 Rule: Core vs. Stables/Trading
A balanced approach works best in this market. A 50-50 split between:
🔹 Long-term spot positions (SOL, LINK, XRP, BYC…RWA, AI tokens)
🔹 Stables for shorter-term bets based on emerging narrativesThis provides flexibility—riding out volatility on core positions while having dry powder ready for quick trades. More conservative investors may lean towards a larger core allocation, while active traders might keep most funds liquid for rapid movement.
📉 Risk Management: The Key to Survival
Many traders enter alt positions with no invalidation plan. But cutting early on a losing trade saves capital and prevents major drawdowns. Using technicals (weekly support/resistance) makes decision-making more systematic.
📌 Example: TAO and AI16Z breakdowns below key support were clear de-risk signals—always better to exit early and buy back later than to ride a trade into the ground hoping for a rebound.
Again, this is where the managed vaults can be an asset if trading is not your forte!🔥 Opportunities Are Still There
Even in this new paradigm, opportunities remain. Capital rotations into new narratives (BNB chain, AI, etc.) create momentum plays. The key is spotting them early—watching on-chain data, social sentiment, and emerging projects to gain an edge.
The ARC community is adapting to this faster, more fragmented market with a mix of disciplined long-term holds and strategic short-term trades (all done in the managed vaults). Stay nimble, stay informed, and take control of the game. 🏆
💬 Drop thoughts in the comments—how is everyone adjusting to this shift? 👇
-
🚀 Mastering Limit Orders: The Smart DeFi Trader’s Playbook 🔥
Limit orders aren’t just a tool—they’re your secret weapon for maximizing gains and scooping up bargains without staring at charts 24/7. Here’s why they should be in every DeFi trader’s arsenal:
🎯 Two Prime Use Cases for Limit Orders
🔼 Scaling Out During a Bull Run:
When the market’s pumping, don’t let emotions run the show. Set up laddered sell orders to lock in profits automatically—no FOMO, no panic selling.📌 Example: Holding SOL, SUI, AERO, or JUP? Use limit orders to cash out at key price levels while the market is climbing.
🔽 Buying the Dip Like a Pro:
Every retrace is an opportunity—but only if you’re ready. Instead of chasing price action, set strategic buy orders using Fibonacci levels (0.786, 0.618) to grab assets at optimal discounts.📌 Example: Want more SUI at $3.70? Set a limit buy order and let the dip come to you.
🔗 How to Use Limit Orders Across DeFi Ecosystems
💎 Solana (Jupiter)
✅ Sell 100 SOL at $599 each?
🔹 Open Jupiter, use Limit Order, and set your target price.
🔹 Keep SOL in your Phantom Wallet—set expiration to “never” if unsure.
🔹 Profit: $59,900 secured—zero manual work.⚡ Ethereum (Uniswap)
✅ Selling ETH for USDC at $5,000?
🔹 Use Uniswap on Ethereum Mainnet
🔹 Set your limit sell price & confirm.🌐 Base & Arbitrum (SushiSwap)
✅ Want to cash out 1,760 AERO at $11 each?
🔹 Set a limit sell order on SushiSwap
🔹 Potential earnings? $19,360 in USDC.🌊 Sui (Cetus)
✅ Buying the dip on SUI at $3.70?
🔹 Open Cetus, place a limit buy order, allocate $1,000.
🔹 Sit back & let the market come to you.🔥 Pro Tips for DeFi Limit Orders
🔹 Plan Your Exit & Entry – Map out targets with Fibonacci & market trends.
🔹 Diversify Across DEXs – Don’t rely on one platform—maximize options.
🔹 Test Small First – Get familiar with limit orders before going big.
🔹 Stay Ahead – The best time to set orders? Before the market moves.With limit orders, you control the trade—not the other way around. 🚀 Set it, forget it, and profit while you sleep. 💤💰
What’s your go-to strategy for limit orders? Let’s talk in the comments! 👇🔥 #DeFi #CryptoTrading #LimitOrders
-
This was helpful to set my mindset for how to negotiate the crypto market moving forward…
-
🚨 Wow! Just wow! Crypto Market Shaken by Historic Liquidation Event! 🚨
The crypto world just witnessed one of the biggest liquidation events in history—over $2.2 billion in longs wiped out in a single day! This sell-off even surpasses the LUNA and FTX collapses in nominal terms, with $750 billion in market cap erased in just days. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly wicked down to $91K, while Ethereum (ETH) touched the $2,100s, shaking even seasoned investors.
Adding to the chaos? Fresh tariff fears under the Trump administration, raising concerns about economic uncertainty, interest rates, and the USD’s strength. Tech stocks are feeling the heat, but the long-term crypto bull case—BTC adoption, regulatory improvements, and monetary policy shifts—remains strong.
🔹 Buying the Dip?
With altcoins down 20-30% overnight, is this a rare buying opportunity or a sign of deeper trouble? Well, no one has a crystal ball…but…Historically, extreme fear events often create some of the best accumulation zones. While not every altcoin will recover, those with strong fundamentals tend to bounce back hard. Smart strategies? Dollar-cost averaging (DCA), focusing on major narratives, and avoiding panic selling.🔹 What’s Holding Strong?
💡 Utility & DeFi Altcoins: LINK, ONDO, SOL, and CHEX have shown resilience, proving that quality matters. Infrastructure, on-chain liquidity, and stablecoin mechanics are keeping these tokens afloat.
🤖 AI Altcoins: The AI sector has cooled, but strong projects like VIRTUAL, TAO, AI16Z, and maybe ANON could emerge stronger post-shakeout. Expect a consolidation phase before real builders take the lead.
🏦 RWA Altcoins (Real-World Assets): ONDO and CHEX barely flinched, reinforcing that institutional interest in tokenized assets is growing. With major conferences ahead, these tokens could remain a bright spot. CPOOL and lower MC options are out there too. Just visit Coingecko and search for the RWA category.💭 Final Thoughts:
While volatility is nerve-wracking, mass liquidations often lead to massive opportunities. Staying level-headed, focusing on fundamentals, and avoiding panic selling could be the key to navigating the storm. Are you buying this dip or waiting it out? Do you still expect a euphoric Alt season or are you stacking BTC and getting into the Managed Vaults? Drop your thoughts! 👇 -
If you are looking for some safe coins to research, here is a nice summary…
For more info on what’s happening in the markets, here is a good video from one of the mentors I trust.
-
🚀 Bitcoin & Crypto Market Update: Key Levels, Altcoin Trends & Trading Strategies 🚀
(not financial advice)🔹 Bitcoin’s Technical Setup
Bitcoin just closed above the 100K mark, holding a critical support zone. The key levels? Below 100K remains a bullish opportunity, especially around 80K for those looking to bid with proper invalidation. Meanwhile, the 90K-100K zone is neutral—not an ideal area for action. Despite short-term rollover signals, Bitcoin’s daily and weekly charts remain structurally bullish. And while many altcoins are bleeding, macro fundamentals and seasonality (February’s historical strength) still favor BTC’s long-term outlook.🔹 The Altcoin Market: Choppy but Selective Strength
Altcoins are in rotation mode, with most struggling, yet key narratives—RWA (Real-World Assets), AI, and strong utility projects—are showing resilience. This market isn’t fully bullish or bearish but oscillating between “altcoin season” and “Bitcoin season.” The key? Focus on narratives and technical levels over headlines—market pricing is always forward-looking.🔹 Buy Signals for Altcoins
The two primary altcoin entry strategies right now:
✅ Strength-based entry: Coins making higher lows and reclaiming key supports.
✅ Deep flush entry: Buying quality projects after a forced liquidation event.
Every trade should have a structured plan with technical validation—using high-timeframe supports, key moving averages (like the “money noodle”), and strategic bid zones.🔹 Adapting the Trading Mindset
With shifting market conditions, traders are adjusting their holding-to-trading ratio—for example, from 70-30 to a more balanced 50-50 to protect capital while capitalizing on momentum. Strict invalidation levels are crucial—cut losses if a key level breaks, rather than hoping for a recovery. Successful trading = active risk management, not stubborn holding.🔹 Top Altcoin Focus for February
The strongest performers are narrative-driven and product-backed:
🔥 High relative strength plays: SOL, JUP, HYPE, MOVE, ONDO, ENA
🔥 RWA & utility-based: MANTRA, LINK, PENDLE, CHEX
🔥 Speculative but high-quality opportunities: WLD, MEW, VIRTUALS, AI16ZThe strategy? Position sizing, multiple bid zones, and clear de-risking plans. Even in a choppy market, technical setups and key narratives create opportunities.
📊 Stay disciplined, trade smart, and let the charts guide the way. 🚀 #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Altcoins #BTC
-
🚀 Bitcoin & Altcoin Market Update! 🚀
The BTC chart has shown some solid moves after the latest FOMC meeting, with a sharp fakeout followed by a strong bounce. With no more FOMC meetings until March, all eyes are now on macroeconomic factors and new policy developments. Overall, BTC’s trend remains bullish, and it’s still looking like a good time to hold core positions while watching for any technical signals to de-risk.
💥 Altcoin Season: Is it Coming? 💥
The big question: When is alt season? While the total market cap (excluding BTC, ETH, and XRP) looks solid on higher timeframes, the market feels fragmented. Many traders have shifted focus to more speculative on-chain tokens, creating a mix of rapid inflows and outflows. The strategy? Keep a compact, high-conviction spot portfolio (BTC + select altcoins) while staying nimble enough to seize short-term opportunities in sector rotations.⚡ Ethereum as a Catalyst for Altcoin Growth ⚡
Historically, ETH has led alt seasons, but it faces more competition and FUD this time around (looking at you, SOL & SUI). That said, ETH has proven resilient over time and still has the potential to spark altcoin growth, especially in the first half of the year.🔄 The Market Is Different This Time 🔄
Unlike 2021, BTC is now backed by massive institutional interest, while altcoin markets are flooded with new token issuance. Instead of one giant alt season, expect multiple mini-cycles—driven by unique catalysts like Real World Assets (RWA), AI, or specific on-chain ecosystems. Even if everything doesn’t pump together, there’s still plenty of opportunity in sector rotations.📉 Altcoin Dilution & Opportunities 📉
There’s been a surge in new tokens, but many are obscure meme coins or small launches that don’t even make it to major exchanges. That said, altcoins with strong fundamentals and clear use cases (looking at you, SOL, LINK, PEPE) still have major potential in the mid-to-long term.🔮 Navigating the Current Market 🔮
Different sectors like AI, RWA, and gaming can have their own moments, so keeping core holdings small and focusing on fresh narratives is key. For example, a gaming token tied to a major launch may be a short-term buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news play, while an RWA token with regulatory tailwinds may become a mid-to-long-term hold. Always have a plan and invalidation levels in place!🤖 Bullish on RWA & AI 🤖
RWA is a standout sector, backed by growing institutional support (shoutout to Larry Fink). AI coins are also thriving thanks to rapid adoption and cost reductions in training models. Decentralized AI protocols (like TAO and QUBIC) are set to thrive, especially when privacy and data ownership are key. Projects within the Bittensor (TAO) subnets are showing how AI can seamlessly integrate into the crypto ecosystem.🔥 The Agentic AI Narrative 🔥
AI agents are the next big thing! Projects focused on agentic AI (LMT, VIRTUAL, AIXBT, AI16Z) are intriguing, but due to rapid forks and dilution, caution is necessary. Short-term trades could turn into long-term holds if the fundamentals keep improving. Remember: Let winners run and cut losers fast.The key takeaway? With strong risk management, this cycle could offer some of the most explosive opportunities—especially with AI and agentic AI narratives leading the way. The game has changed, and rotation-based strategies are the name of the game! 🎯 #DeFi #Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #AI #RWA #Ethereum #AltSeason #CryptoTrading #DeFiCommunity
-
🚀 Hey Crypto Enthusiasts! 🚀
Lately, I’ve been diving deep into portfolio tracking and crypto taxes—two essential areas for managing your investments. If you’re like me and value efficiency with tons of functionality, I’ve got some solid recommendations for you!
💼 Portfolio Tracking:
- Debank (Free & Paid) – https://debank.com/
- Nansen (Free & Paid) – https://app.nansen.ai/
- Coinstats (Paid but AMAZING!) – https://coinstats.app/
After some serious research, Coinstats is definitely my top pick for its robust features and seamless tracking. 🔥
📊 Crypto Taxes:
As crypto grows, tax laws are changing FAST. Did you know the IRS now requires you to report earnings from each individual wallet you own?! 😳 Whether you’re filing taxes or just staying compliant, you NEED reliable tax tools. I’ve used Lorenzo and his team at ARC (crypto tax CPA), and they did a great job last year! But I’m also exploring other options and price points. Check out these tax platforms:- Koinly – https://app.koinly.io/
- CoinLedger – https://app.coinledger.io/
- Blockchain Crypto Tax Prep – https://cryptotaxprep.io/
-
This reply was modified 5 months, 3 weeks ago by Tom Frederick.
-
What’s happening in crypto this cycle?!? I’ m going crazy!
https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1884573961108775385
-
🚨 DeepSeek R1 is Shaking the Markets! 🚨
Today’s altcoin bloodbath wasn’t just another routine dip—something BIG is unfolding. The launch of DeepSeek R1, a cutting-edge AI model out of China, has rattled global tech markets with its insane efficiency and low operational costs. 🧠💥
🔹 NVIDIA tanks in futures trading—investors fear AI disruption.
🔹 Risk-off sentiment spreads—Bitcoin takes a hit, dragging altcoins lower.
🔹 AI x Crypto crossover—could this be the catalyst for the next wave of decentralized AI adoption?🛠️ What This Means for Crypto x AI
DeepSeek’s open-source approach could accelerate AI-driven crypto projects. Cheaper AI = lower costs for decentralized innovation, boosting projects like TAO, ANON, JUP, LMT, and VIRTUAL. The market panics short-term, but smart money sees the long game.
📉 Buying the Dip? Here’s My Strategy
🔹 SOL, JUP, PEPE, LINK, TAO, ANON—fire sale prices, but be strategic.
🔹 DCA and hold conviction—the FOMC decision could shake things up further.
🔹 JUP’s buyback mechanism adds extra fuel to the upside case.🚀 The Bullish Take
This chaos isn’t just noise—it’s setting the stage for AI-powered crypto explosions. Decentralized AI protocols will thrive as AI costs drop and access expands.
👀 Keep your eyes on BTC & ETH—big moves ahead.📊 Are you buying this dip or sitting on the sidelines? Let’s talk strategy below! 👇🔥
-
Just staked my bag.
-
🚀 Crypto Market Update – January 22 🚀
🔹 Bitcoin Breakout? BTC is holding strong, forming higher highs and lows! After dipping from ATH, it found support near $103K, with the key $100K level in focus. Political shifts and pro-crypto moves are adding fuel to the bullish momentum.
🔹 Altcoins Heating Up – While we may not see a full-blown alt season, sector-specific runs are in play! SOL & XRP are leading, but future gains depend on fresh catalysts. Adaptability is key!
🔹 Smart Strategy → Less Confusion – The market is noisy, but keeping a high-conviction core portfolio while rotating into trending sectors can maximize gains. Exit strategies matter: secure profits, stay nimble!
🔹 Top Sectors to Watch:
✅ AI Tokens – Still dominating! With massive innovation, picks like AI16Z, AIXBT & ORDER are making waves. Stick to projects with real utility!
✅ RWA (Real World Assets) – Big institutions are coming! MANTRA, PENDLE & LINK are key players in tokenizing traditional finance.🎯 Focus, adapt, and ride the trend! Where do you see the market heading next? ⬇️ #Bitcoin #Crypto #Altcoins #AI #RWA
-
I love CHEX and have it on both Ethereum and Solana networks.
-
LOng term, I think the TRUMP meme has more legs. Each time he has an accomplishment or mentions BTC or crypto, it has a chance to pump. I had both at the start. Lost a bit on MELANIA (maybe it was too early). I am holding a bag of TRUMP.